Nifty falls below 23,000, VIX Rises on Persistent Selling

Jan 27, 2025

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Market Overview

The Nifty opened lower, down 152 points at 22,940.15, and continued to drift lower through the session. Despite brief attempts at recovery, selling pressure persisted, leading the index to close at 22,829.15, down 1.14%.

Market sentiment remained cautious, with broader indices witnessing sharper declines. Reflecting this nervousness, the India VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose over 8%, indicating heightened uncertainty.

Investors continued to weigh factors such as foreign fund outflows, currency fluctuations, and upcoming domestic events while keeping an eye on global cues for further direction.

Broader Market Performance:

The broader market faced significant pressure today, with a sharp decline in the number of advancing stocks. On the NSE, 352 stocks advanced, while a substantial 2,535 stocks declined, and 68 remained unchanged. The market also saw 452 stocks at their 52-week lows, while only 20 reached 52-week highs.

Sectoral Performance:

The overall sectoral performance was negative, with all indices closing in the red. Nifty Media posted the sharpest decline, falling by 4.73%, followed by Nifty Metal and Nifty IT, which declined by 2.95% and 3.36%, respectively. Other notable declines were seen in Nifty Pharma -2.65%, Nifty Energy -2.54%, and Nifty Consumer Durables -2.14%.

Change in OI for the day

The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 30th January:

The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 23,000, followed by 23,300 and 23,200. Meanwhile, the maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is at 22,500, followed by 23,000.
The Call OI increased significantly at 23,000, indicating resistance, while the Put OI showed an increase of around 22,500, suggesting support at this level.

Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations but generally, in a falling market if there is an increase in the call OI, it indicates resistance, and in a rising market, if there is an increase in the put OI, it indicates support.

Source: Sensibull

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What’s happening in India

The Reserve Bank of India's unexpected bond purchases, totalling ₹10,175 crore, lowered yields and raised expectations of a rate cut in February. The move aims to ease liquidity and support growth amid slowing economic forecasts. The 10-year bond yield fell to a near three-year low at 6.67%. Dive deeper

India’s exports to the U.S. rose 5.57% to $59.93 billion during April-December FY25, while imports grew 1.91% to $33.4 billion. Bilateral trade reached $93.4 billion, with the U.S. remaining India’s largest trading partner. Concerns persist over potential U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, with India expected to respond if necessary. Dive deeper

The Finance Ministry is inviting applications for SEBI Chairperson as Madhabi Puri Buch's term ends on February 28. The position, based in Mumbai, offers a term of up to five years or until the age of 65, with a February 17 application deadline. Dive deeper

Macrotech Developers' shares rose after reporting a growth in Q3 FY25 PAT to ₹940 crore. The company saw an increase in pre-sales and collections, with revenue from operations reaching ₹4,080 crore and adjusted EBITDA improving to ₹1,590 crore. Strong cash flows helped reduce net debt to ₹4,310 crore. Dive deeper

Waaree Energies' stock fell further amid concerns over US energy policy and falling solar PV module prices. Rising global supply, led by China, and expected domestic capacity growth by FY29 add to the pressure. Dive deeper

CDSL shares fell after reporting a 21.5% YoY rise in Q3 FY25 PAT to ₹130 crore, with total income at ₹298 crore. Despite the growth, a sharp QoQ decline in standalone profit and revenue weighed on investor sentiment. The company registered over 14.65 crore demat accounts, adding 92 lakh new accounts in Q3. Dive deeper

Biocon approved raising ₹570 crore via commercial papers and reported an improved ESG score of 69 for 2024, ranking in the 98th percentile globally. Dive deeper

Laurus Labs' shares fell 11.28% to ₹534.65 due to concerns over the US pausing foreign aid, affecting PEPFAR-funded ARVs. With ARVs contributing 50% to revenue, uncertainties remain. Q3 FY25 saw a 7% YoY decline in API revenues, while FDF ARV sales grew sequentially. Dive deeper

Gabriel India acquired assets from Marelli Motherson to expand its suspension portfolio and boost manufacturing capacity. The deal includes a technical partnership with Marelli Suspension Systems Italy, enhancing technological capabilities and market position. Dive deeper

Birla Estates has partnered with Mitsubishi Estate for a ₹560 crore residential project in Southeast Bengaluru. The joint venture, Mitsubishi’s first in India’s real estate sector, will develop a 4 million sq. ft. project with a 51:49 economic interest split. Dive deeper

HPCL has partnered with Delhivery to enhance the nationwide distribution of HP Lubricants using Delhivery’s logistics network and tracking solutions to improve supply chain efficiency and reach. Dive deeper

What’s happening globally

The dollar index rose above 107.7 after Trump's tariff announcement on Colombia, amid trade concerns. Markets await the Fed meeting and the upcoming PCE inflation report. The dollar gained against the Aussie, kiwi, and yuan. Dive deeper

Gold fell below $2,760 as investors awaited the Fed’s policy decision, with rates expected to hold. Pressure mounted from a stronger dollar and renewed tariff concerns. Dive deeper

Hong Kong's trade deficit narrowed to $34.5 billion in December 2024 from $59.9 billion a year earlier, as exports rose 5.2% while imports fell 1.1%. For 2024, the deficit reached $379.7 billion, with exports up 8.7% and imports up 6%. Dive deeper

Germany's Ifo Business Climate rose to 85.1 in January 2025 from 84.7 in December, exceeding forecasts. Current conditions improved, while business expectations remained steady. The services sector showed growth, but manufacturing continued to decline, reflecting ongoing economic stagnation. Dive deeper

China’s January 2025 Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1, marking the first contraction since September. Output, new orders, and buying activity declined, while foreign demand and employment remained weak. Business confidence, however, hit a ten-month high. Dive deeper

China’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in January 2025 from 52.2, reflecting slower activity ahead of the Lunar New Year. Domestic and foreign orders contracted, with global trade uncertainties rising amid tariff threats from the US. Employment continued to decline at a slower pace, while confidence hit a three-month low. Dive deeper

Ireland’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 74.9 in January 2025 from 73.9, the highest since July, as inflation concerns eased. However, economic and job confidence weakened, and spending plans declined. Dive deeper

President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Colombian imports after the country refused deportation flights, citing security concerns. In response, Colombia announced a reciprocal tariff. Petro demanded dignified deportation protocols and civilian aircraft use. Other countries have also resisted US deportation flights. Dive deeper

Tech stocks declined as Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek's advanced model, rivaling US firms, raised concerns over AI hardware spending. Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta saw losses, while Nasdaq futures pointed lower. Dive deeper

China’s bond market signals economic concerns as falling yields raise deflation fears. The PBoC warned against excessive bond buying by banks but halted treasury purchases after $1 trillion in buys. Dive deeper

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield dropped below 2.5% as markets expect an ECB rate cut. The Ifo index rose to 85.1 in January, with services recovering but manufacturing weak. Focus also remains on the US Fed’s decision and Trump’s policy stance. Dive deeper

Quarterly results

In this section, we'll dive into all the key highlights from today's intriguing results, covering the most impactful performances and standout moments. The numbers are comparable on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.

Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOC) (-3.19%)

Financials:

Revenue from Operations: ₹2,16,649 crore, down 2.9% YoY.
Net Profit (PAT): ₹2,873 crore, down 64.4% YoY.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹2.09, compared to ₹5.86 in Q3 FY24.

Key Highlights:

18.11 MMT, slightly lower than 18.50 MMT YoY.
$3.69/bbl vs. $13.26/bbl in the previous year due to reduced inventory gains.
Exceptional items included ₹680 crore due to VAT reversals.

Outlook:

Continued focus on operational efficiency to mitigate margin pressures.
Revenue recognition adjustments (₹14,325 crore) under LPG pricing buffer account remain unresolved.

DLF Limited (DLF) (1.24%)

Financials:

Revenue: ₹1,738 crore.
Gross Margins: 52%.
Net Profit: ₹1,055 crore.
New Sales Bookings: ₹12,093 crore.
Net Cash Position: ₹4,534 crore.

Key Highlights:

Achieved ₹12,093 crore in new sales bookings, driven by the success of The Dahlias in DLF 5, Gurugram (₹11,816 crore bookings).
Generated ₹1,850 crore during the quarter.
₹19,187 crore, surpassing annual guidance.

Outlook:

Positive momentum in the rental business and strong capex plans.
Development projects, including Downtown Chennai, Downtown Gurugram, Atrium Place Gurugram, and three retail malls, are on track.
DLF’s business is positioned to capitalize on its substantial land bank, robust pipeline, and consistent cash flows.

Adani Wilmar (AWL) (3.71%)

Financials:

Revenue: ₹16,859 crore, up 31% YoY.
Operating EBITDA: ₹792 crore, up 57% YoY.
Net Profit (PAT): ₹411 crore, up 105% YoY.
Volume Growth: 5% YoY.

Key Highlights:

Best-ever TTM EBITDA at ₹2,390 crore up 60% YoY) and PAT at ₹1,192 crore up 75% YoY).
Covered 43,000 rural towns as of Dec '24, up from 5,000 in March '22, with a target of 50,000 by FY25.
Sales grew 41% YoY (TTM), contributing to the rapid adoption of value-added products.
Revenue exceeded ₹600 crore on an LTM basis, with >35% volume growth YTD.

Outlook:

Adani Wilmar continues strengthening its portfolio in edible oils and packaged foods, leveraging its integrated distribution model and expanding rural and urban footprints. The company is well-positioned for future growth with sustained profitability and strategic growth initiatives.

Shakti Pumps (SHAKTIPUMP-BE) (-5%)

Financials:

Revenue from Operations: ₹648.77 Cr, up 31% YoY.
EBITDA: ₹143.38 Cr, up 119.2% YoY.
EBITDA Margin: 22.1%.
Net Profit (PAT): ₹104.05 Cr, up 130% YoY.
EPS: ₹8.66 adjusted for the bonus issue; up 111% YoY.

Key Highlights:

Bonus issue in a 5:1 ratio completed in November 2024, with share capital increased by ₹100.18 Cr.
A dividend of ₹4 per share was paid for FY24.
Strong revenue growth is driven by increased operational efficiency and demand.

Outlook: The company remains optimistic about sustaining growth momentum, supported by strong demand in domestic and international markets and operational efficiencies.

ACC Limited (ACC) (-3.09%)

Financials

Volume Growth: 10.7 MnT, up 21% YoY.
Revenue: ₹5,927 Cr, up 21% YoY.
Operating EBITDA: ₹1,116 Cr, up 2% YoY.
Net Profit (PAT): ₹1,092 Cr up 103%YoY.
EPS: ₹58.0 up ₹29.4 YoY.
Cash & Cash Equivalents: ₹2,526 Cr.

Key Highlights:

Partnership with Coolbrook (Finland) to leverage zero-carbon rotodynamic heating technology, supporting Net Zero goals.
Efficiency drive and cost initiatives, including plant upgrades, led to significant cost reductions and volume growth.
Optimized fuel basket reduced kiln fuel cost by 10% (₹1.86 → ₹1.68/‘000 Kcal).
Thermal value improvement (739 kCal → 732 kCal).

Outlooks:

The company expects continued improvements in efficiency, cost metrics, and thermal value in the coming quarters.

Central Depository Services Limited (CDSL) (-10.41%)

Financials:

Operating Income: ₹221 crore, down by 10.9% from ₹248 Cr YoY.
EBITDA: ₹146 crore, down by 37% from ₹231 Cr.
Net Profit: ₹105 crore, down by 38% from ₹171 Cr.
New Accounts Opened: 92 lakh, down by 22% from 1.18 crore.
Demat Custody: ₹75 lakh crore, down by 3.8% from ₹78 lakh Cr.

Key Highlights:

Strong governance and internal controls were maintained to safeguard assets.
Emphasis on the Group's ability to continue as a going concern, with no material uncertainties identified by the Board.

Outlook:

The company remains committed to maintaining robust financial practices and regulatory compliance.
Continued focus on assessing risks, enhancing operational efficiencies, and ensuring long-term sustainability in the dynamic business environment.

Adani Gas (ATGL) (-3.45%)

Financials:

Revenue from Operations: ₹1,400.88 crore, up from ₹1,244.00 crore YoY.
Profit Before Tax (PBT): ₹192.06 crore, up from ₹235.82 crore YoY.
Net Profit (PAT): ₹142.38 crore, up from ₹176.64 crore YoY.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): ₹1.29 vs ₹1.61 YoY.

Key Highlights:

Operating efficiency improvements were noted, although profits were impacted by higher costs.
Significant progress in the Jalandhar geographical area acquisition, with authorization transferred during the nine-month period.

Outlook:

The company continues to focus on operational excellence and expanding its distribution network and the management remains confident about future growth and compliance with legal and regulatory frameworks, despite ongoing challenges in some markets.

LT Foods Limited (LTFOODS) (-7.27%)

Financials:

Revenue: ₹2,275 crore, up 17% YoY compared to ₹1,942 crore.
Net Profit: ₹143 crore, down 6% YoY due to rising costs.
EBITDA Margin: 11%, down from 12.3% YoY, reflecting pressure on operational efficiency.

Key Highlights:

Higher raw material costs, increased finance costs, and a rise in employee benefit expenses weighed heavily on profitability.
The board approved acquiring a 4% stake in Raghunath Agro Industries (an arm of DAWAAT Foods) for ₹2.7 crore, reinforcing its investment in wholly-owned subsidiaries.

Outlook:

The company aims to sustain revenue growth but faces challenges in managing rising costs and maintaining margins. The strategic acquisition signals continued focus on expanding its value chain and subsidiary investments.

Canara Bank (CANBK) (-4.98%)

Financials:

Net Profit (PAT): ₹4,104.20 crore, up 12.25% YoY compared to ₹3,656.12 crore.
Net Interest Income (NII): ₹9,148.57 crore, down 2.84% YoY.
Gross NPA Ratio: Improved to 3.34% from 4.39% YoY.
Net NPA Ratio: Reduced to 0.89% YoY, reflecting better asset quality.
Total Expenses: ₹28,277 crore, up 10.77% YoY, pressuring margins.

Key Highlights:

Despite profit growth and asset quality improvement, the stock fell over 4% as declining NII and rising expenses weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook:

The company’s focus on improving asset quality and operational efficiency positions it well for future growth, though maintaining profitability amid rising expenses and NII pressure remains challenging.

Management chatter

In this section, we pick out interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers of the Indian and Global Economy.

Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas, CEO, Perplexity on training foundational AI models to make them open source

"Excluding MFI, we want good asset quality along with 20% growth for the rest of the book."
"As for the loan book certainly, we have guided for a 20% growth. We feel that delivering 20% growth in this country on the low base we are starting at is not at all difficult. We have really good capabilities for that. So, 20% growth should be quite possible. We will deliver it also in FY25. We will deliver it in FY26 also."

"As far as cost to income ratio is concerned, we are running behind in the sense that it is higher than what we anticipated or what we guided and we agree with that and we admit that. But having said that, there was really no choice. We launched so many lines of businesses like cash management, wealth management and they are all fantastic businesses for the long run for the bank. Every business is built for profitability and as every business scales up over the next four-five years, definitely the cost to income ratio will come down." - Link

Jayant Acharya, CEO, JSW Steel

"We are very clear that we will focus on the ratios, and that would be most important."
"Our leverage likely peaked out in the December quarter."
"Government-backed spending on infrastructure and trade measures to ensure a level-playing field for domestic players will be key for boosting our earnings in the current quarter."
"A lower intensity of imports is expected to support steel prices, while a reduction in costs of coking coal and iron ore is expected to help moderate costs."

Calendars

In the coming days, we have the following major events, corporate actions, and upcoming earnings releases:

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