Nifty sinks ahead of Trump’s tariff decision
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Market Overview
Nifty opened with a sharp gap down of 180 points at 23,341.10 but quickly started recovering. Within 45 minutes, it had erased all the losses and even touched a high of 23,565.15. However, the recovery was short-lived as the index began sliding again, breaking the day’s low and falling below 23,300. The downward momentum continued, with Nifty eventually breaching the 23,200 mark.
After some choppy movement, the index settled into a narrow 50-point range between 23,150 and 23,200 before finally closing at 23,165.70, down 1.5% for the day.
Global investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the U.S. reciprocal tariff decision expected from President Trump on April 2nd. Despite a strong performance in March, concerns about global cues and continued foreign fund outflows are weighing on the markets.
Broader Market Performance:
Although the headline indices had a rough day, the broader market showed resilience. Out of 2,994 stocks traded on the NSE, 1,955 advanced, 960 declined, and 79 remained unchanged.
Sectoral Performance:
Among all sectoral indices, Nifty Media emerged as the top gainer, closing 2.24% higher at 1,508.30. On the flip side, Nifty Realty was the worst performer of the day, plunging 3.11% to end at 824.85.
Out of the 12 sectoral indices listed, only one sector—Nifty Media—closed in the green, while the remaining 11 sectors ended in the red, reflecting broad-based weakness across the market.
Note: The above numbers for Commodity futures were taken around 5 pm. NSE has not released today’s FII-DII data yet. Here’s the trend from the last 5 days:
Change in OI for the day
The following is the change in OI for Nifty contracts expiring on 3rd April:
The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is observed at 23,500, followed by 23,600, indicating strong resistance at these levels.
The maximum Put Open Interest (OI) is at 23,000, followed by 22,800, suggesting strong support at 23,000, with additional support at 22,900 and 22,800.
Note: OI is subject to multiple interpretations, but generally, an increase in the call OI indicates resistance in a falling market, and an increase in the put OI indicates support in a rising market.
Source: Sensibull
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What’s happening in India
The government has raised the price of APM natural gas by 4%, from $6.50 to $6.75 per MMBtu, effective April 1, 2025. This is the first increase in two years, following a government-set roadmap. The hike will impact the cost of CNG, cooking gas, and fertilizers. Dive deeper
India received a record $129.4 billion in remittances in 2024, with $36 billion in the December quarter. This marks the third consecutive year of over $100 billion in inflows driven by skilled migration. Remittances are expected to grow further, reaching $160 billion by 2029. Dive deeper
India's sugar production reached 247.61 lakh tonnes as of March, with Uttar Pradesh leading at 87.5 lakh tonnes. Maharashtra and Karnataka contributed 80.06 lakh tonnes and 39.55 lakh tonnes, respectively. The total production for the 2024-25 season is estimated at 264 lakh tonnes, including 35 lakh tonnes for ethanol. Dive deeper
ITC Ltd. will acquire the pulp and paper undertaking of Aditya Birla Real Estate Ltd. in Lalkuan, Uttarakhand, for ₹3,498 crore in an all-cash deal. The acquisition will strengthen ITC’s Paperboards and Specialty Papers Business and open new growth opportunities. Dive deeper
Vodafone Idea shares rose 20% as the government converted Rs 36,950 crore of dues into equity, raising its stake to 48.99%. This reduces the company’s liabilities, while Vodafone Plc and Aditya Birla Group’s stakes decrease. Operational control remains with the private promoters. Dive deeper
HAL secured a Rs 62,700 crore deal with the Ministry of Defence to supply 156 Light Combat Helicopters for the Indian Army and Air Force. This marks India's largest-ever defence procurement, enhancing operational capabilities and expanding the aerospace sector. Dive deeper
Maharashtra has raised ready reckoner rates by 4.39% for the financial year 2026, affecting property valuations and stamp duty. The hike will influence transaction costs across regions, with varying increases in urban, rural, and metropolitan areas. Dive deeper
Tejas Networks has received Rs 189.17 crore, the first tranche (85%) of its incentive under the Production Linked Incentive scheme for telecom products. This covers the first two quarters of the fiscal year 2025, with the remaining amount to be released later. Dive deeper
LTIMindtree has expanded its partnership with Google Cloud to develop industry-specific solutions using AI platforms like Agentic AI and Gemini. The focus will be on sectors such as BFSI and Retail to maximize cloud investments and modernize infrastructure. Dive deeper
Royal Enfield sold over one million units for the first time in FY25, reaching 10,09,900 units, an 11% increase from the previous year. Domestic sales grew 8%, while exports surged 37%. The company continues to expand globally with new plants in Thailand and entry into Bangladesh. Dive deeper
Adani Green Energy has commissioned 480 MW of solar and wind capacity at Khavda, Gujarat, as part of the world's largest renewable energy park. The 30 GW project, set to be completed by 2029, will create 15,200 jobs and generate 87.4 billion units of clean energy. The park will feature 26 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind energy. Dive deeper
Raymond Ltd has entered a joint venture to develop a Rs 5,000-crore housing project in Wadala, Mumbai, through its step-down subsidiary Ten X Realty East Ltd. The project is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth, raising its total real estate development value to nearly Rs 40,000 crore. Dive deeper
Renault Group will acquire Nissan's 51% stake in Renault Nissan Automotive India Pvt Ltd (RNAIPL), gaining full control of the Chennai facility. Both companies will continue operating Renault Nissan Technology & Business Center India (RNTBCI), with Nissan holding 49%. The transaction is expected to be completed by mid-2025. Dive deeper
NHPC has started the commercial supply of 600 MW from its Parbati-II hydro project and connected its 300 MW Bikaner solar project to the ISTS. The Parbati-II project will be fully operational soon, while the Bikaner solar project is expected to be fully commissioned by August 2025. Dive deeper
NCC shares are in focus after the company received work orders worth Rs 5,773 crore in March 2025 across its Transportation, Building, and Water & Environment divisions. The orders were awarded by various State and Central Government agencies. Dive deeper
GMR Airports shares rose after AERA approved a 148% increase in aeronautical tariffs for Delhi Airport, effective April 16, 2025. The new plan includes a variable User Development Fee (UDF) for international passengers. Dive deeper
NITI Aayog has developed a portal offering comprehensive data on State finances from 1990-91 to 2022-23. It includes reports, a data repository, an economic dashboard, and research on fiscal policy. The portal aims to provide accessible data for informed discussions and comparisons across States. Dive deeper
Bosch has received a demand notice of over ₹20 crore from the Income Tax department for the assessment year 2022-2023, including ₹18.37 crore in dues and ₹1.80 crore in interest. The company is in the process of appealing the notice, but no penalty has been quantified yet. Dive deeper
Google welcomed the NCLAT's reduction of its antitrust penalty in India from ₹936.44 crore to ₹216.69 crore. While the penalty was lowered, the CCI's order was upheld. Google reaffirmed its commitment to comply with local laws and support India's app ecosystem. Dive deeper
What’s happening globally
WTI crude oil futures dropped to $71.2 per barrel amid concerns that the escalating trade war could reduce energy demand, though supply risks from tensions with Russia and Iran may limit the decline. Dive deeper
Gold hit a record high of $3,130 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of President Trump's tariff roll-out, raising concerns of a global trade war. The rally was also fueled by rate cut bets, central bank purchases, and demand for ETFs. Dive deeper
The US 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.2% due to concerns over escalating trade tensions, increasing demand for safe-haven assets. The New York Fed President indicated that interest rates may stay steady for now to assess incoming data. Dive deeper
The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic maintained its interest rate at 5.75% in March 2025, after reducing it by 125 basis points since late 2024. Inflation stayed within the target range, and the economy is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025. Private sector credit growth moderated, and international reserves reached US$14.7 billion. Dive deeper
Japan's unemployment rate fell slightly to 2.4% in February 2025, defying expectations. The number of unemployed decreased by 60,000, while employment and the labor force both saw slight declines. The jobs-to-applications ratio dropped to 1.24, and the labor force participation rate stood at 63.2%. Dive deeper
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March 2025, driven by higher output and foreign sales. Employment increased marginally, but business confidence weakened due to global trade uncertainties. Input prices fell, leading to a drop in output prices for the fourth month. Dive deeper
The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 in March 2025, its highest since August 2022, driven by stronger new orders and increased production. Business confidence reached a three-year high, while employment declined and export sales remained weak. Input costs and factory prices fell slightly. Dive deeper
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.1% in April, maintaining borrowing costs after a February cut. The RBA expressed growing confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2-3% target but noted uncertainties in both domestic and global economic outlooks. Dive deeper
The S&P Global Russia Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2 in March 2025, signaling a contraction due to declines in output and new orders. Employment increased slightly while firms reduced purchasing activity. Input prices rose, but output cost inflation eased to a two-year low. Dive deeper
The UK's Nationwide House Price Index rose 3.9% year-on-year in March 2025, with prices stalling month-on-month. Activity may remain soft in the short term but is expected to improve as summer progresses. Northern Ireland led with 13.5% annual growth, while Scotland and Wales saw 3.9% and 3.6% increases, respectively. Dive deeper
Euro Area annual inflation eased to 2.2% in March 2025, below expectations, with slower service price growth and a decline in energy costs. Core inflation fell to 2.4%, the lowest since January 2022. Monthly consumer prices rose 0.6%, following a 0.4% increase in February. Dive deeper
General Motors is recalling 10,643 2025 Cadillac LYRIQ vehicles due to incorrect head restraint information in the owner's manual, which affects compliance with safety standards. The recall aims to correct the manual and prevent potential injury risks. Dive deeper
Management chatter
In this section, we pick out interesting comments made by the management of major companies and policymakers of the Indian and Global Economy.
Pieter Elbers, CEO, IndiGo on Airfares and Expansion Strategy
"Ticket prices should be a reflection of cost levels. IndiGo is expanding its foundation value of offering affordable rates."
"The occupancy levels on business class have been as per our expectations. We are working with partners to get our customers attached to this new product."
"We did some forex hedging last year, but hedging cannot be looked at on a sequential basis. We expect a different impact of forex in the fourth quarter compared to the third." - Link
Nitin Gadkari on EVs, Battery Prices, & Green Mobility
"The price of lithium, which was $150 per kilowatt a few years ago, has now come down to nearly $100. Once it decreases further, the cost of electric vehicles will come down as well, making them more affordable for the masses."
"Pollution is our country's biggest challenge, and a major part of it comes from the transport sector."
"Farmers will no longer be just food providers, they will be energy providers too."
"With a strong push for electric vehicles, biofuels and urban cycling infrastructure, India is poised to lead the global transition to sustainable transport solutions." - Link
Calendars
In the coming days, we have the following significant events and corporate actions:
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